CONFIDENTIAL BRIEFINGVERIFIED 2025 AND 2026 RESULTS2026 PROVINCIAL ITEMS BELOW ARE PLANNING NOTES

Ahsanul Hafiz

Ontario Liberal Candidate — Scarborough Southwest

"Let's Lead Together"

Scarborough, OntarioProvincial Riding Baseline81,880 Registered Electors
Verified on-page election results are sourced from Elections Ontario and Elections Canada. Strategy notes, outreach segmentation, neighbourhood prioritization, and candidate messaging remain briefing analysis unless a source is explicitly named in the section.
Riding Overview

Scarborough Southwest is a provincial electoral district in eastern Toronto. It is one of the most diverse ridings in Ontario, with large South Asian, Bangladeshi, Tamil, and Chinese communities. The riding includes Kennedy Park, Woburn, Cliffcrest, and the Golden Mile corridor.

123,232

Population (2021)

81,880

Registered Electors (2025)

33,937

Valid Ballots (2025)

098

Provincial District #

2025 Provincial Results (Baseline)

NDP

Doly Begum

42.89%

14,557 votes

PC

Addie Daramola

30.64%

10,400 votes

OLP

Qadira Jackson

22.94%

7,786 votes

GRN

Mark Bekkering

3.52%

1,194 votes

Verified baseline: the OLP finished 19.95 points behind the NDP in the official 2025 provincial result. Any 2026 path on this page should be read as planning, not as a published election outcome.

Riding Intel Map

Schematic neighbourhood map for field planning, based on the historical baselines already shown on this page. This is not an official GIS boundary map.

Birchcliffe / Cliffside

Base

Stronger historical Liberal baseline

Cliffcrest

Base

Lower field risk on historical federal data

Golden Mile

Watch

Mixed vote base, persuasion territory

Kennedy Park

Priority

Dense outreach and multilingual canvass focus

Ionview / Warden Woods

Priority

Historically tougher ground for Liberals

Scarborough Junction

Priority

High-priority turnout and persuasion zone

Source basis: Elections Canada 2021 poll-by-poll table, Elections Ontario 2025 riding-wide result, and the existing briefing's historical priority model.

2026 Federal Election — Validated Result

69.60%

Doly Begum (Liberal)

18.80%

Conservative

5.90%

NDP

28,998

Validated Votes

Source check: added from the Scarborough Southwest 35096 validated federal result dataset you supplied, showing Doly Begum as the 2026 Liberal winner.

2025 Federal Election — Verified Official Result

61.50%

Bill Blair (Liberal)

30.60%

Conservative

5.00%

NDP

54,740

Valid Ballots

Source check: this replaces the earlier unsupported 2026 by-election card with the official Elections Canada 45th general election result for Scarborough Southwest.

Demographic Profile

Ethnic Communities

Scarborough Southwest includes large Bangladeshi, broader South Asian, Tamil, Chinese, Filipino, and Caribbean communities. These labels are retained as outreach context rather than as newly source-cited percentage claims.

Housing

Mix of single-family homes in Cliffcrest/Birchcliffe, high-rise apartments in Kennedy Park, and condo developments along Golden Mile. Affordability remains a key briefing theme.

Economy

Working-class and middle-class families. Many small business owners, healthcare workers, and service industry employees.

Key Voter Segments

Bangladeshi Community

Core outreach

Mosque networks, community events, direct relationship organizing

South Asian Families

Broad persuasion

Education, healthcare, and small-business messages

New Canadians

Service-first

Settlement support, credentials, transit access

Working Families

Cost pressure

Cost of living, childcare, and commute concerns